Whether Or Not To Raise Interest Rates

Macroscopic

Economic operation data, in July, consumer price (CPI) rose 3.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, a record high in the year.

Earlier, the market consensus was that CPI would reach its peak in the middle of the year and then gradually decrease.

Investment

Xu Yunkai, deputy director and industry rotation fund manager, said the CPI data released recently were neutral, because the market had expected CPI to reach 3.5%-3.6% in July.

From the whole year, CPI should be a peak in July. Therefore, it is foreseeable that CPI will be guaranteed to be less than 3% this year.

Influence

CPI is likely to continue in the next 2-3 months.

As the current economic downturn is more obvious, the industrial output gap has narrowed rapidly, and the growth of money and credit has been well controlled. Therefore, she expects that CPI will initially fall back at the end of the three quarter or the fourth quarter.

This view was also endorsed by the Huafu fund. They thought the three quarter had a CPI high and then gradually dropped.

Increase interest

Expectations.

Xu Yunkai believes that inflation is in a controllable state and the probability of raising interest rates is further reduced.

Li Yiwen believes that in the context of the economic downturn, there is no need to raise interest rates, but it does not exclude the possibility of a slight increase in interest rates.