Zheng Cotton Plummeted &Nbsp; Trend Chart Before Spring Festival
The first part of the state launched, cotton prices plunged 28%
Figure 1: Zheng Mian 1109 contract daily K-line chart
The picture shows Zheng Mian 1109 contract daily K-line chart.
Fig. 2: Monthly K line chart of Zheng Mian 1109 contract
The picture shows Zheng cotton 1109 contract monthly line chart.
This year, cotton has gained the limelight, first rising from 16380 yuan per ton to more than 33000 yuan per ton, and has plummeted since mid November.
By November 29th, the main 1109 contract fell to 24180 yuan per ton, down 9420 yuan, or 28%, compared with the November 10th high price of 33600 yuan.
Under the joint action of policy and fundamentals, the main price of zhengmian is expected to be between 23000 yuan and 28000 yuan before the Spring Festival, and the 25500 yuan is the balance point of this period.
at present
cotton
The main factors affecting prices have shifted from fundamentals to policy.
The website of the NDRC issued a special document on the State Council's Circular on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices to protect the basic livelihood of the masses. It mentioned that some idle funds and illegal operators manipulate the prices of related commodities by means of fraud, collusion, hoarding, hoarding and other improper means, which is a direct push for the price rise of some agricultural products.
As far as cotton is concerned, the article thinks that "cotton purchase is also a vicious speculation by hot money. The phenomenon of unlicensed acquisition and unlicensed processing is more prominent. Some acquisition companies do not have relevant access qualifications, but they rush to buy up prices."
In accordance with the price regulation measures, "to strengthen the futures market for agricultural products and
Electronic paction
The Dalian commodity exchange, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai futures exchange have increased the margins of various varieties, expanded the limit of the daily limit, and restricted the maximum positions.
According to Zhengshang's notice, the margin standard of cotton futures contract trading will be adjusted from 12% to 7% since the settlement in November 26, 2010.
When the margin is raised, the leverage effect of cotton futures will be reduced and the financial threshold for cotton futures will be raised.
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At the beginning of December, the state will hold an economic work conference to set the tone for next year.
Macro economy
Policy.
It is expected that before the conference, the state will continue to regulate prices vigorously and supervise the futures market and electronic trading market.
Cotton spot and futures prices will still be dominated by weak shocks.
Recently, some scholars began to reflect on the recent policy of price intervention by departments concerned. They believed that these measures were not macro-control.
There is a strict definition of macro regulation, which means that the government controls the operation of the economy by controlling the total amount.
The meaning of "macroscopical" is "gross" and "global" rather than "single" or "concrete".
There are only two macro policies: monetary policy and fiscal policy.
The administrative intervention market has a negative effect on the economy and society.
Because in the market economy, price is an important source of information, playing a key role in the allocation of resources.
As prices rise, supply is in short supply. Enterprises that see rising prices perceive profits and increase supply under the guidance of prices.
The result is to alleviate shortages and automatically balance supply and demand.
Therefore, after entering December, investors need to focus on changes in the government's policy. First, the government is still likely to raise interest rates again to control the total amount of money. Two, whether the administration means to manage prices is tending to moderate.
According to the executive meeting of the State Council held on the 29 day, the relevant departments will make amendments to the provisions on administrative penalties for price violations. The revised draft regulations will collude with each other, maliciously hoarding, and fabricate price information to raise prices and profiteering.
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