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The Deposit Reserve Rate Will Be Further Raised By 50 Points &Nbsp; &Nbsp; International Commodity "Desensitization".

2010/12/13 9:09:00 41

The Central Bank Of China Raised The Deposit Reserve Ratio By 50 Basis Points In The International Market.

Last Friday

China's central bank

Announced again

Raise the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points

Up to 18.5%, however, the news of liquidity tightening did not cause much impact on the external commodity market.

The price of international crude oil and bulk agricultural products only declined slightly in the evening, while London copper price rose somewhat, but it still increased by about 1.14% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 9021 US dollars / ton.

It seems that after China announced a more moderate monetary tightening policy, investors worried about China's monetary policy and demand prospects would be comforted, though this is the third time that China has raised the deposit rate in the past month.

Previously,

international market

It is widely feared that China will raise interest rates again last week, and this aggressive tightening policy will be bad for most commodity prices, because liquidity recovery policy may affect China's commodity demand and suppress the atmosphere of market growth.

But the central bank's decision to replace the rate hike by raising the deposit rate seems to indicate that management tends to adopt a more moderate monetary tightening measure, showing that the current price rise is still in the controllable range.

Standard Chartered Bank said that interest rate increase is more likely to affect the overall economy, while the deposit rate change is more likely to affect the banking industry.

Compared with China's strong import of raw materials, the impact of successive "upgrading" seems to be minimal.

Data from the national customs administration on Friday showed that China's imports of UN forged copper and copper increased by 28.5% to 351 thousand and 600 tons in November, and the huge increase in copper imports seems to mean that China's copper demand is rising continuously in disregard of tighter liquidity.

As a representative of the demand for bulk agricultural products, China's soybean imports have increased substantially this year. Customs data indicate that soybean imports in 1~11 months reached 49 million 370 thousand tons this year, an increase of 30.7% over the same period last year, of which 5 million 480 thousand tons of soybeans imported in November, an increase of 46.9% over October.

Compared with other commodity prices, the international copper price seems to be more immune to China's "accuracy", because the overall demand for copper is even more vigorous.

As of last Friday, LME copper inventories were only 348 thousand tons, down 37% from the 6 and a half high in February.

The spot copper in London is currently in the three month copper premium of US $35 / ton, and in late October it was still worth 20 US dollars / ton.

In addition, some large international organizations have applied for the launch of spot supported copper ETF, which will expand the channels for investors to obtain spot copper.

The above factors seem to make the supply of metal copper far behind the growth of demand.

However, at the end of last week, China's National Bureau of statistics released worrisome economic data when nervous tight commodity investors were ready to relax.

China's CPI growth rate reached 5.1% in November, much higher than 4.7% of analysts' forecasts.

Hu Yanni, a macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said that the CPI was rising too fast, indicating that domestic inflation pressure was high. Anti inflation has become a long-term task. Tightening measures, including administrative measures, will continue to be used. Interest rate hikes are estimated to be in the firing line.

Insiders said that although the fundamentals of commodities such as metal and copper still support further price increases, China's CPI growth and inflation will inevitably lead to a new tightening policy. And the prices of many commodities are still high.