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Guoxin Center: RMB Appreciation Against Us, EU And Japan Exchange Rate Next Year Or Full Appreciation

2010/12/20 14:50:00 48

In 2011,

RMB

The US dollar will continue to appreciate, and the euro and yen will end.

depreciation

In turn, it will enter the appreciation interval, and because the Australian dollar itself continues to rise, the exchange rate of RMB against the Australian dollar may be mixed.

China National Information Center published the report in the Shanghai Securities Journal.

In the report entitled "the trend of the world's main currency exchange rate and the trend of next year", the National Information Center believes that the continued downside of the dollar in 2011 is very limited, and the future will be mainly a weak shock, limiting the possibility that other currencies will increase further against the RMB exchange rate; the euro will also show a concussion adjustment because of the long-term existence of the European debt problem; the yen has a great downside risk.

At the same time, the slow recovery of the US, European and Japanese economies is unlikely to change in the short term. The fundamentals do not support the strength of the currencies of all countries. Therefore, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US, Europe and Japan will have a full appreciation.

At the same time, 2011 is the opening year of China's "12th Five-Year" plan. The economy will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum, and inflation expectations still exist.

With the change of China's monetary policy from loose to steady, the possibility of raising interest rates again and again is also increasing.

Under the background of global liquidity surplus, the spread of interest spreads between China and developed countries will aggravate the inflow of international capital, thus forming pressure on the appreciation of RMB.

The report also pointed out that there will be no fundamental change in the slow recovery of the world economy in 2011. Therefore, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of further difficulties in the issue of RMB exchange rate in the US, Europe and Japan.

Data released by the Central Bank of China this month showed that foreign exchange accounted for 319 billion 643 million yuan in November, down about 40% from October.

However, compared with historical data, the foreign exchange account of about 300000000000 yuan is still in a high position, reflecting the trend of large inflow of foreign funds in the near future.