Domestic And Foreign Market Prices Continue To Decline

On August 2011 8~12, the domestic and foreign market prices of cotton did not change; cotton yarn prices continued to weaken, and polyester staple prices continued to rise.

As the new year draws near, the growth of new flowers is good as a whole. Procurement of textile enterprises is cautious, spot sales are sluggish, and cotton storage enterprises continue to lower their quotations. In August 12th, the national cotton price B index, representing the average selling price of lint cotton in the mainland, was 19185 yuan / ton, down 520 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average selling price of Xinjiang grade lint was 19544 yuan / ton, down 509 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price of 20450 yuan / ton in September, down 40 yuan / ton compared with last week; Beijing's national cotton trading market electronic matching transactions in September the average contract price of 19572 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 182 yuan / ton; Hefei national cotton trading center electronic matching transaction September contract settlement price 19760 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 90 yuan / ton.

US Department of agriculture 8 monthly report American cotton Both output and export volume have been raised, and Brazil cotton and Australia cotton export prospects are optimistic, and India cotton has taken part in the market competition with a low price attitude. The global supply is further loose, and the international cotton price continues to decline. In August 12th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in October was 100.7 cents / pound, down 0.8 cents / pound, or 0.7%, compared with last week. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated on the basis of 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 20745 yuan / ton, down 2355 yuan / ton, or 10.2%, compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the import cost of the folded renminbi is 21114 yuan / ton, down 2331 yuan / ton, or 9.9% lower than last week.

This week, raw material prices continued to decline and downstream sales remained sluggish. Cotton yarn The price continued to weaken, and the price of polyester staple fiber was down. In August 12th, 32 cotton combed yarn prices were quoted at 27400 yuan / ton, down 950 yuan / ton last week, or 3.4%, and the polyester staple price was 12900 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 1.1% lower than last week.

Looking ahead, the downward pressure on international cotton prices will not decrease. At present, the global economic situation is intricate, the trend of commodities is unstable, and the external environment of the cotton market is complex and changeable. In August 8th, the US credit rating was downgraded and triggered a great stir in the global financial market. In order to boost market confidence, many countries took an active action. The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate should remain at the lowest level of 0~0.25% in the middle of 2013, but the market worried that the European debt crisis would extend to the core countries such as France and Italy, which could further drag down the already weak global economy. From a fundamental point of view, the US Department of agriculture survey data show that in 2011, the US cotton abandoned rate was 30%, the harvest area was 58 million 927 thousand and 500 mu, and in the August monthly report, the US cotton output increased from 120 thousand tons to 3 million 604 thousand tons, and the export volume correspondingly increased 65 thousand tons to 2 million 678 thousand tons, exceeding the market expectation. The above data show that the adverse weather conditions in the early days of Texas have limited impact on cotton production, and the downward pressure on international cotton prices will not decrease in the short term.

　　 Domestic cotton market or continued weak operation.

At present, both the external environment and the fundamentals are not conducive. Cotton market The main reason is that domestic cotton prices will continue to be weak in the near future. First, the data released by the central bank in August 12th showed that in July, new RMB loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan, or 25 billion 200 million yuan less than the same period last year.

Nonetheless, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 9 may show a year-on-year rise of 6.5% in the past year, a record high of 6.5% since July 2008. It is expected that monetary policy will not be significantly relaxed this year. Two, the export import and export situation of the General Administration of Customs in August 10th shows that China's export volume has reached 175 billion 130 million dollars, and the trade balance has reached a record value of 31 billion 484 million US dollars, which is much higher than the 22 billion 270 million US dollar in June. In the August 11th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was first broken 6.4, and it was 6.3991. Under the influence of a high surplus, the pressure of RMB appreciation is expected to decrease. Three, according to the General Administration of customs, China imported a total of 1 million 483 thousand and 300 tons of cotton in 1~7 months, with a reduction of 227 thousand and 900 tons compared with the same period last year. This shows that textile operation is still weak, and cotton demand is hard to lift, which is not conducive to the cotton market warming.