"Ultimate Test" Expelled From The Bottom Of The A Stock Market

U.S.A sovereignty The lowering of credit rating has played a role of rapid digestion and quick catch up for A shares, making the July CPI panic of new heights, the pressure of intensive disclosure of key companies and the pressure of profit expectation downfall have been fully and fully digested. The most undervalued value after quick "catch up" is also enough to digest. market Pessimism still exists. Therefore, the 2437 point has basically been established as the bottom of the term.

Improving the market environment in many ways

After the market has undergone the ultimate test, the improvement of the market environment is manifold. First of all, the release of listed companies' expected earnings pressure has come to an end. In July, PMI showed that the inventory of enterprises starting from the middle reaches of the industry in April has come to an end. By the end of 7, the national security housing utilization rate has exceeded 70%, and the pulling effect on the economy is beginning to show. Secondly, with the global economic slowdown, especially the weakening of the US economy and the steadfast adjustment of China's economy, the economic basis for the continued rise in commodity prices represented by crude oil is no longer there. Combined with the rise of domestic agricultural and sideline food prices has entered the failure period, the tail factor weakened and other reasons, in July, 6.5% of the CPI became the commanding height of the year is a foregone conclusion, from August, CPI will enter a significant downward phase. Moreover, the Ministry of finance has recently indicated that local financing platform management has achieved some results, and the local government debt risk is generally controllable.

　　 Finance Real estate stocks or ushered in the "commotion period"

More importantly, the United States decided to maintain ultra-low interest rates until the middle of 2013, creating a stable expectation for the "cheap dollar". Since the scale of debt has been raised again, whether the form is really QE3 or not, the emerging market will enter a stage of "US dollar liquidity" in the situation of economic depression in Europe and America. The improvement of liquidity helps A shares enter the road of valuation repair. In August 11th, A single day net inflow of funds reached 17 billion 300 million, and "long term nest" financial real estate stocks were completely riot, and the low PE second tier blue chips that had been disclosed in the middle of the report were turning stronger, and the phenomenon of strong consumer and beverage stocks was strong. This shows that the nature of this landing at 2437 is somewhat different from that of the first two rebounds this year. Although there is a process of re confirmation and re consolidation at the bottom, but with the fundamentals of "inflation downward month by month, the economy seeks stability", the coming of the small rebound cycle, the continuous improvement of market liquidity and the gradual improvement of market psychological factors, the catching up trend of the "us shock wave" is evolving into a new medium-term bottom.

The expansion of valuation repair is conducive to low PE shares.

　　 Quotation It is gradually entering the post - mid - reporting cycle, that is, the period of Chinese stock taking. The expansion of valuation repair is beneficial to low PE shares, and the market structure is conducive to the release of the cyclones in the middle reaches after the pressure of profit reduction has been released. Correspondingly, the advantage of the high PE market value is weakening with the end of the disclosure of the interim report. There are two phenomena that can be overlooked in the high valuation and small market value of emerging industry stocks: (1) from the published results, the growth rate of the gem is far below the market expectation, and the latter is facing the risk of a sharp downgrade. (2) the "spiritual pillar" of the global emerging industry stocks has been blocked by the joint reduction of several Wall Street funds after the market value exceeds the first place of mobil oil, and the famous US public fund manager Kenneth Sieb's capital growth management company even emptied Apple's stock.

With the end of the disclosure of the interim report, the valuation coordinates of the market are also changing from the 2011 earnings forecast to the 2012 earnings forecast, which brings two new stock selection perspectives to the structured Market: first, the stability of the industry's earnings growth rate is strong, that is, the expected stability and safety are relatively reliable; two, the benefit of the valuation handoff is greater, that is, the growth is high. The two can integrate better.