Textile And Clothing: The Domestic Export Market Is Not Optimistic.

Since the beginning of June, we believe that the growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail industry will slow down: domestic demand is affected by inflation, demand for product price increases will be suppressed, and the slowdown of macroeconomic growth will slow down. The growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail will grow slowly and oscillate in the medium term in the long term growth. The export data lag behind the real reaction of the real economy.

Affected by the skyrocketing cotton prices before March, the export price of enterprises increased, raising the price function to curb overseas demand, but the impact of "price increase" was enough to offset the "reduction" role. In 6 and July, the monthly export volume of our textile and clothing exports reached a record high, but the order of the real economy deteriorated, and the demand for Europe and America continued to slump. In the 8-10 months, the value of textile exports decreased by 6.5%, 5.4% and 14.5%, respectively. We expect that the export situation will continue to deteriorate in the future.

To curb terminal demand, in the first three quarters of 2011, the sales performance of the major retail enterprises in the country in the first three quarters of last year increased by 25.65%, up by 0.25 percentage points over the same period last year (5.4% percentage points lower than the same period last year). 2) next year, with the low price of raw materials such as cotton prices, the sales volume of textile and clothing is expected to rise, and the pformation of volume and price will be realized. Considering that the negative impact of high price on consumers' consumption will gradually weaken, we expect that the growth rate of consumption will likely increase slowly in 2012. Manufacturing export enterprises should still wait and see in the near future: manufacturing enterprises are not optimistic about the export form in the four quarter, coupled with the excessive expansion of pre production capacity. Inflation inhibits domestic demand: 1) affected by the upward pressure on costs of raw materials, manpower and logistics, retail companies have increased their prices significantly since this year.

The brand retail enterprises will split up and have strong defense capabilities: in the trend of slow growth and slowing down of domestic consumption, the listed brand retail enterprises have strong competitive advantages, especially the white horse stocks with good quality, and the probability of future performance growth will be greater.