Valuation Is The Only Risk In The Textile And Garment Industry.

The other is export manufacturing.

Exports are basically lying at the bottom, because the European and American economies are there, and another important thing is that the middle and low order orders have been pferred to India and Southeast Asia. This trend is faster and faster and irreversible.

For the textile and apparel retail industry which has always been very optimistic, we think that in the first five months of this year, we should have strong desire for consumption.

But there was a slowdown in growth in May.

In June, we changed our view. In the medium term, that is to say, about a year or so, domestic textile and garment growth should have a slow downward trend.

this

Integrating the three plates, textile and clothing just started a pition period this year.

That is to say, in the past twenty or thirty years, it has been rising unilaterally or unilaterally.

Especially for private enterprises, textile and clothing were the first to open in the past 30 years of reform and opening up.

All enterprises operate at the core of expansion.

But from the beginning of this year, this foundation has begun to change.

For the future outlook, the export and manufacturing industries of their golden age, including chemical fiber, have all gone.

Because the pfer of support to create a large export has begun and irreversible.

Although China is also in the Midwest, the fastest growth stage is over.

So the future export and the golden age have gone.

Because the overall downstream demand is slowing down.

Textile and garment retail will also usher in a big golden cycle, but this golden period is different from the golden period ahead.

The next 20 years will be the rapid growth of endogenous growth.

That is to say, there will be more and more brands and distinctive enterprises. The growth rate of these enterprises may also be slightly slower. They will not be able to move 50% like this, but their sustainability is high and customer loyalty is high.

In the past, many investors complained that many of our brands are not as distinctive as those seen in Hongkong or Europe and America. I think this situation will be improved in the future.

China will also have its own distinctive brand.

from

So at present, we stick to the two principles of stock selection, one is good quality, one is extension development, the other is endogenous, and there is an endogenous industrial layout.

We are more optimistic about the company is seven wolves, nine Mu Wang (601566, stock bar), Roley Fraser Anna (002327, stock bar), Meng Jie, Weixing, Semir and other quality enterprises.

For export manufacturing, especially raw material oil two time windows, but for chemical fiber plate, especially viscose and other plates, the fundamentals of the worst time has not yet arrived, is still in the process of decline.

So next year's rebound, we can only say that the rebound will not be too great.

It should be about 10%-20%.

From the point of view of export manufacturing, there are few companies that really adhere to the export manufacturing industry, and have diversified operations in recent years.

Now the valuation is already very cheap. In the future, for manufacturing companies, there will be more companies like Yu Garden group in the long run, but in the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry is still a severe test.

From the current point of view, inventory is still more difficult.

In the first half of next year, there will be some recovery in the second half of the year.

In the pition period, it is not very clear, more or more needs to be observed.

The defense of the whole textile and Garment Retailing is relatively strong.

From the perspective of investment risk, the retail industry is a relative valuation problem.

We still have strong confidence in the future growth.

The companies we recommend, whether capacity or early preparation, will have potential and great potential for future pition.

The bigger risk comes from valuations. On the one hand, it is for other industries. On the other hand, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been continuously callback in recent years. The gap between A and H-share in textile and garment retail is widening further.

Valuation is the only risk in the industry. In general, it is a defensive feature.