PTA Alliance Breaks Up Operation Rate To Raise Pressure Period Price

Last week, a number of domestic PTA manufacturers announced the settlement price of contract goods in September.

It is worth noting that the latest settlement price of the three leading enterprises there are price differences.

"The main reason for the sharp rebound of PTA futures after May is that the domestic PTA production enterprises have formed a price alliance, and now the alliance is in name only."

Guotai Junan Futures analyst Dong Dandan said.

It is reported that Yisheng and Xiang Lu September PTA contract cargo settlement price of 6900 yuan / ton, Hengli settlement price of 7000 yuan / ton, the alliance has internal price differences, and the settlement price has not been calculated according to PX+720 yuan / ton.

One industry insider told reporters that the main reason for the failure of the alliance was that Hengli had failed to comply with the agreement, and the market was short in the futures market, resulting in a bull in the 1409 contract, and its profits in the futures market were quite good, which made the other manufacturers who took the initiative to reduce the load but did not sell short.

"Yisheng and Xiang Lu settlement price of 6900 yuan / ton is actually for breath, Yisheng downstream matching polyester, the actual impact is not big."

Immediately after the collapse of the alliance, the load will start to increase.

Dong Dandan said that in the 6-9 months of the alliance, Xiang Lu and Yisheng's active production control led to a sharp decline in the operation rate of the entire PTA industry, excluding the two week 70% operation rate in the first half of July, and the rest time was below 65%.

However, the direct beneficiaries of the two big enterprises' reduction in production have become Hengli and other small and medium-sized enterprises.

With the outflow of the 1409 contract deliveries and the introduction of the settlement price in September, the two enterprises will substantially increase the operating rate in the later stage.

In fact, the starting rate of PTA began to increase gradually in late September.

This judgment was confirmed in many other industry circles.

"The operating rate in October is sure to go up. Now the factory is back to using its own production line.

In addition, the four quarter also involves second years of signing customers' problems, leading enterprises must maintain normal start-up load.

A spot business person said.

Affected by this,

The current fragile supply and demand balance will return to excess.

It is also understood that the current situation of polyester in the lower reaches of PTA is still good, the stock of polyester links is low, the pressure of polyester links is relatively small, and the current operation rate of polyester links has improved compared with that of August.

At the same time, polyester enterprises also reflect that after eleven, polyester production and marketing can be maintained at the level of September. It will be a good event after October.

Cost side pair

(PX) it is not optimistic either.

"Asia's PX capacity has been put in 5 million tons in the three quarter. At the end of 2013, Asian PX capacity was about 32 million tons, and the capacity growth in the three quarter reached 15%. And even without the new capacity of 5 million tons, Asia's PX can also achieve self-sufficiency, which means that the new capacity will compete for the market share with the old PX plant, and the bottom finding process of PX will be longer."

Dong Dandan said.

In the operation, she suggested that the 1501 contract can be gradually laid out over 6300 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / tonne of spot and spot base, which is the base of the 1501 contract in which the contract is in the middle.

The first target point is the 6000 dollar integer pass, and the second target point is 5800 yuan.

In September 29th, PTA futures opened higher and lower, and the main TA1501 contract closed at 6180 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton or 1.44% compared with the day before yesterday's settlement price, 1056 to 618 thousand hands on that day.

The report shows that on Monday, the first 20 empty Futures Company seats in PTA futures totaled 22937 to 194 thousand hands, while the top 20 seats increased by more than 5225 to 278 thousand.