Leading The Fund Managers To See The City: The Rise Of Financial Stocks Stems From The Logic Of Reform.

In the three quarterly bulletin of the power pioneer, I put forward, standing at the present time, we need to consider the systematic rise of the A-share market since the three quarter of this year, whether it is a technical rebound in the long decline process, or the end of the bear market in the 5 years since August 2009? My personal judgment is that this rally is different from the previous rebound.

The reason for this conclusion is that everything that the new government is doing is going beyond our expectations, whether it is internal anti-corruption and reform, or diplomatic rights and strong forces. Despite difficulties, they are sticking to it.

Therefore, I judge that in the next few quarters, the economic data may still not be good looking, but the market is more convinced of the pformation of the government, and the confidence of the market is recovering. The earning effect of A shares is spreading. The market will evolve from the unilateral structural market of the monologues to the systematic opportunities, and there will be a round of comprehensive quotas across the year.

In early November, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 2400, and the market was divided.

Based on the multi headed thinking, in the monthly meeting of the month, I judged that the market will have two possibilities in the future: one is that the market will usher in a technical adjustment, the large and small stocks will fall, and the assets with the partial defensive assets such as medicine can get relative returns. After the adjustment, the market will continue to rise; the other is the index refusing to adjust, the big stock will start, the 28 Division will emerge, and the situation of "earning the index will not make money".

But the big blue chips didn't think clearly about what logic or theme went up at that time.

Before the three quarter, the characteristics of the A share market were stock movements, and institutions basically concentrated their positions on growth stocks.

But after the start of the blue chips in July, there was an influx of incremental capital.

The funds are originally invested in real estate, trust products, commodities and other markets, and are now gradually flowing into the stock market.

Their action

The main body will not choose the current market value of 80 times, the small and medium market capitalization of institutional positions

Instead, we choose blue chips with relatively good liquidity, low valuation and low institutional ownership.

According to previous habits of thought, the three quarter

The rise, we understand that the valuation of repair, the rise of space is very limited.

But since November, we have found that the evidence of inflow of funds is very obvious.

At the same time, the funds already worried about the high valuations and performance cashing of small stocks, and began to shift some of their positions to blue chips.

Based on the continuous admission of incremental capital and the switch of stock capital structure, we can predict that in the coming period, the market index will be stronger than the growth of small cap.

In fact, before the interest rate cut, the disk showed this point, and the capital began to flow to blue chips.

We looked at the report of the enterprise in the three quarter, and the report of the steel and pportation industry was very poor, but the share price went very strong.

It is difficult to understand this situation only from the perspective of fundamentals.

But in fact, this round of market is not based on fundamentals, but a capital driven valuation recovery market.

Its logic is in the context of interest rate cuts, with ample funds and the most benefit from the undervalued interest rate industry.

Therefore, the first thing to start in this round is brokers insurance, and then to the bank real estate, has now spread to the coal, nonferrous metals and other resource industries.