PTA: Cost Side Support Strong

Crude oil hit a low level since March 2009, hitting 13 in January, and a new low in January 29th. The January 29th low rose by 19.2% compared with the price of February 17th in the last trading day before the Spring Festival. Naphtha and PX also stabilized. From January 13th to February 17th, naphtha increased by 37.8%, and MX rose by 29.7%. PX slowly rebounded from 733 US dollars / ton in January 13th to 884 US dollars / ton in February 17th, while China's main port increased by 20.6%, while the PTA 1505 contract rose only from 9% to February 17th in February 17th.

Crude naphtha - PX On the chain of -PTA, the PTA increase is relatively small. From the point of view of price conduction, there is a possibility of increasing inflation in the later stage of PTA. According to the current price of PX, the cost of PTA is 5080 yuan / ton, and the price of PTA 1505 contract should rise to 5400 yuan / ton according to the consistent calculation of crude oil, PX and PTA.

In addition, in the absence of crude oil, naphtha and PX futures, it is also a reason for domestic funds to pour into PTA futures to buy foreign raw materials and buy domestic petrochemical futures for hedging.

From January 13, 2105 to February 16th, the operating rate of PTA enterprises changed little. Instead, the downstream enterprises had a holiday during the Spring Festival, and the operating rate was greatly reduced. Downstream right now PTA The market has little effect.

In the second half of 2014, in the face of the fall in the price of PTA, the amount of procurement by the downstream enterprises increased, the contracted goods decreased, and the stocks in the lower reaches were about 7 days. After the Lantern Festival, the price of PTA rises and is subject to "buying up but not buying". Trade habit The downstream may enhance procurement.

PTA has 13 delivery warehouses, most of which are located in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in the production and marketing area. Delivery is carried out by brand, and some brands are exempt from inspection. In June 2014, under the existing warehouse delivery mode, the exchange increased the facility and delivery mode with convenient delivery, high efficiency and low cost. The factory warehouse delivery started from the 1510 contract. Although the 1505 contract can not be delivered to the factory, the warehouse capacity is not a problem.

As for warehouse receipts, as of Friday's closing, PTA's warehouse receipts were 40310, less than 58962 of the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2014, but larger than the 8139 and 2954 copies of the first trading day after 2013 and 2012.

In terms of delivery cost, the futures contract price of 1505 is 4904 yuan / ton, and the spot price is 4700 yuan / ton, the base price is -204 yuan / ton. Buying spot to futures market and calculating the cost of capital, the total delivery cost is about 250 yuan / ton, even if the goods are delivered in extreme cases, the loss is not large. Moreover, according to the 70% operating rate, the monthly supply of domestic PTA is about 2 million 510 thousand tons, while the polyester starting rate is calculated by 66%, which requires at most 2 million 170 thousand tons of PTA raw materials. In this way, there are still 330 thousand tons of raw materials left. Therefore, there will not be a warehouse receipt problem in the PTA market. PTA futures still face the selling pressure of spot businesses in the futures market.

For PX, in February 28, 2015, due to the larger price difference between buyers and sellers, the price of PX ACP was released in March. The price quoted by buyers and sellers is 850 - 880 US dollars / ton VS800 - 820 US dollars / ton. Although the price of ACP was not negotiated in March, the price of buyers and sellers in March was higher than that of February PX ACP price of 710 US dollars / ton CFR Asia. PX is the raw material of PTA, and the price is rising.

In addition, the difference between FOB Korean PX and heterogeneous MX is 141 US dollars / ton, far below the guaranteed cost spread of 190 - 240 US dollars / ton. Affected by poor production margins, Samsung's Total set up its two PX installation in Dashan to 80%. South Korea's S-oil company plans to shut down its 900 thousand ton / year aromatics 2 installation in early March to the end of April. A domestic PX manufacturer in Southern China plans to stop its 1 million 600 thousand ton / year PX plant for 20 to 25 days starting from March 15th. The PX market has a certain supporting role for PTA futures in March.