April Cotton Prices To The Left Or Right?

1, Xinjiang cotton is stationed in the mainland. Why to say so, we must start with transport capacity. Before the Spring Festival, due to the tight railway transport and the high price of motor freight, from the end of November 2014 to the end of February 2015, in the whole 3 months, the Sinotrans cotton transportation was less than 1 million tons, with an average of about 300000 tons per month. After the Spring Festival, the railway transport capacity increased, and the price of motor freight dropped by 30-40%. Therefore, from the beginning of March to April, Xinjiang cotton will enter the mainland in a big way. In 2014, the total output of Xinjiang cotton was about 4 million 300 thousand tons, only 30-40 million tons were digested locally, and the remaining 4 million tons should be digested by the mainland textile enterprises. With the increase of transport capacity, Xinjiang cotton will be "conquering the territory" in April.

2, the outer cotton and the outer yarn cut the cake. Let's talk about outer cotton. It should be said that in 2015, China did not issue other quotas in principle except 894 thousand tons of 1% tariff quotas, and foreign cotton invaded the Chinese market. However, the quota was released later this year. Therefore, although Chinese textile enterprises and cotton traders have ordered many cotton orders abroad, they are restricted by quotas. It is estimated that cotton will arrive in large quantities in April, and the eager textile enterprises will use large quantities of Customs quotas in April.

Let's talk about outer yarns. Customs data show that China's imports in January 2015 Cotton yarn 217 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 5.68%, an increase of 20.41% over the same period last year. In 2014/15, China imported 935 thousand tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 2.39% over the same period last year. According to port Trader It is reflected that after the Spring Festival, the number of consignments sold on each port and the number of yarn for sale outside the port rebounded from 55 thousand tons to the current 62 thousand tons. It is estimated that by the beginning of April, the number of external yarn in Port Bonded and logistics areas will increase to about 70 thousand tons. At present, the price difference between domestic and overseas yarn is still over 1000 yuan / ton, and will continue to be divided into Chinese market cake.

3. Spinning enterprises Shuffling will intensify. In 2014, after a round of shuffle, China's textile enterprises, about 40-50% of small and medium enterprises, shut down, suspend production or restructure their assets. The author believes that such a big shuffle is far from over and will continue to intensify in 2015. Especially in the 4 and May years ago, this time is the peak season for spinning enterprises to prepare and place orders, but this year is still unpopular in the busy season.

In 2015, he hoped that the textile enterprises who hoped to turn over would be disillusioned. Last year, the enterprises that had not been shut down would be completely extinguished in the first half of this year, including some large and medium-sized textile enterprises. In addition, the funding problem of spinning enterprises is very prominent, and the order is scarce. The raw material purchasing habits of domestic textile enterprises have been completely changed. According to the textile enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu, at present, some raw materials inventory of more than 200 thousand spindles is maintained for 20-30 days, while the enterprises with less than 200 thousand spindles only have 13-15 days, which are more than 50% less than in previous years. This way of purchasing cotton enterprises will create pressure on the upstream cotton enterprises eager to cash in, and the cotton enterprises will be in tears and sell for cash repayment.

Pessimism and caution are the mainstream voices in the current market. But the author believes that the market is not hopeless, and there are still some bright lights in detail. For example, in 2015, domestic cotton sowing area or greatly reduced by 20%, this is a great advantage. For example, there are sporadic cotton stocks and strong price intentions in the local cotton ginning mills, which will also bring some support to cotton prices in April. In other words, although Xinjiang cotton has attacked the mainland in a big way, it is now in a state of cost inversion. If the banks did not borrow money in April, and the enterprises would not compete in a vicious way, the price of Xinjiang cotton would not be easy to fall. Therefore, I believe that the fall in domestic cotton prices in April is the main keynote, but the expected rate will not be too great.