Monetary Policy Or Raising The Stock Market.

In the stock market, it is not wrong to suggest risks at any time. Nevertheless, we should pay attention to whether the stock market will repeat the same mistakes now.

The latest economic figures are not as bad as people expected.

Previously announced HSBC China manufacturing PMI3 month preview value of 49.2%, which makes people March pessimistic official PMI.

However, the PMI released by the National Bureau of statistics in March was 50.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month.

It indicates that China's economic adjustment may be bottoming out.

However, in March, HSBC's PMI value of China's manufacturing industry rose slightly to 49.6% compared with the preview value, but it remained the 3 month low.

Under the current macroeconomic environment, the stock market still has room for growth.

In the last two months, two

The volatility is obviously inconsistent.

Looking at the reasons for the rise of PMI, it is mainly affected by factors such as the concentrated operation of enterprises after the Spring Festival, which drives the production index to rise and become the driving force for PMI's upward trend. The factor of suppressing PMI's recovery is still weak demand.

The new orders index and the new export orders index in the two PMI have dropped slightly, reflecting the weak market demand at home and abroad and the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry in the future.

In addition, structural differentiation in PMI continues, for example, the PMI3 month in the steel industry is 43%, down 2.1 percentage points from February, and has been in the contraction interval for 11 consecutive months, indicating that the impact of economic structural adjustment is still continuing.

From the perspective of historical experience, there is more reflection near the inflection point of the economy.

The HSBC China manufacturing PMI, which is booming, has more volatility. In March, HSBC's PMI value of China's manufacturing industry was also revised to the official PMI compared with the preview value. It is expected that the manufacturing PMI will continue to pick up slowly in the coming months.

The positive interpretation of PMI in March will undoubtedly play a positive role in the stock market trend.

People wonder why the economic downturn, the stock market is on the top, PMI's bottom of the touch is expected to improve the economy.

Of course, as the market continues, especially the gem index has hit a new high, investors in the heart of joy, the heart will inevitably be murmur: whether the stock market will repeat the Shanghai Composite Index 6124 points of the past, the decline and decline.

The important point is that the two economies are at different stages of the economic cycle.

At the peak of the last stock market, China's economy is at the peak of the economic growth cycle. In 2007, China's economic growth rate reached over 14%, and the economy showed an obvious overheating. Correspondingly, CPI rose by more than 8% per annum and PPI increased by 7%.

From 2007 to 2008, the central bank basically began to tighten monetary policy. The deposit benchmark interest rate and loan benchmark interest rate were in the rising cycle, and the deposit reserve ratio was also rising.

New loans fell sharply.

The current economic environment is contrary to that time. The economy is still at the bottom of the growth cycle. The shadow of deflation is looming, and the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio will continue to decline. Monetary policy may be further relaxed.

In such a macroeconomic environment, it is asserted that the stock market has reached its peak and may be too cautious.