Experts Analyze The Reasons For The Bull Market And Predict That The Bull Market Will Return In August.

The national bull market will come back in August.

The increase in interest rates in the United States has raised the tension in the South China Sea in June.

The more we go up, the more frequently we call back to Guan Jian's point. The stock market is like an invisible hand. As long as there are bad legends on the weekend public opinion, the management comes out all night to clarify that it is necessary to keep up with the rising trend of the stock market. All of this, when the Fed explicitly did not raise interest rates in June, ended abruptly.

The national bull market will come back in August.

The stock market has plummeted. Everyone has looked for the factors leading to the decline from various aspects. There are various opinions, but all these factors or problems have been found a month ago. But a month ago, as long as the market tends to fall, the supervisors and the state's mouthpiece will come out to shout and protect, and to reduce interest rates. Then, what is the reason that the stock market has changed from a princess who is everywhere to care and become a floating child?

No interest rate was raised in June.

The US interest rate increase means that the US dollar, which has been flooding around the world, needs to be refunded. That is to say, in addition to the reduction in foreign exchange reserves of other countries in the United States and other countries, China is now hard pressed around the world because of its endorsement of $four trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Without this basis, China will become a poor egg on the international stage, so Chinese leaders are most afraid of the sharp decline in foreign reserves, which is the result of what Americans want.

At the beginning of this year, foreign reserves dropped hundreds of billions of dollars. On the one hand, as the RMB (6.2090, -0.0004, -0.01%) was strong, the foreign trade surplus was greatly reduced. On the one hand, many people were already exchanging dollars in anticipation of the US interest rate increase. Under such circumstances, based on the fact that China's cheap labor base for the world factory has no longer existed and the real estate has lost its attraction, once the US interest rate hike and the depreciation of the RMB are expected to rise, then the Chinese dollar will soon decline, thus disrupting the global layout of China.

Some can be exchanged for us dollars at about one trillion and three hundred billion, some of which are US dollar assets, including overseas minerals, oil and oil loans, about eight hundred billion US dollars. Most of these assets were purchased at high prices in the past few years. The prices of these products have dropped by more than forty percent, such as iron ore and crude oil, and it is hard to realise. In other words, the euro and yen are exchanged for us dollars at the time of the US Federal Reserve QE3. At that time, the euro was exchanged for 1.4 US dollars and the US dollar was 80 yen. Now the euro is close to parity with the US dollar, and the Japanese yen depreciates to more than 122. That is to say, this part of the reserve will be exchanged for the US dollar, and the loss will be thirty percent to fifty, which has been seriously locked up, and this part of the reserves will have nearly eight hundred billion dollars. China's foreign reserves are mainly divided into three parts, one is US Treasury bonds and corporate bonds.

This year, China has $one trillion in corporate debt maturity, including foreign exchange bonds issued by real estate companies, plus the impulse of the us to raise interest rates and the depreciation of the renminbi under the expectation of RMB depreciation. Once this impulse has become a reality, it can not be estimated.

The strategy of retaining the US dollar with the continuous depreciation of the renminbi and the non depreciation of the RMB should know that China can barely cope with the expiration of foreign exchange bonds of domestic enterprises. But if the whole world and even the Chinese people are in the expectation of a dollar appreciation and the depreciation of the renminbi, they will be able to exchange for the US dollar. The Central Bank of China will not be able to resist it. If China can retain the attractiveness of the US dollar and this attraction exceeds the expectation of the depreciation of the RMB, then there will not be a situation of changing the US dollar. The stock market has become the protagonist in the situation that the real estate market can not play the role.

So we saw a dramatic scene. The more the United States said the rate hike in June, the more tense the situation in the South China Sea, and the higher the Chinese stock market, the more frequent the Chinese stock market went back to Guan Jian's point. The stock market seemed to have an invisible hand to hold it up. As long as the weekend public opinion had bad legends, the management came out to clarify it overnight, and the central mama was also lowering interest rates. All the hardships had to keep up the rising trend of the stock market, all of which, when the Fed did not raise interest rates in June, stopped abruptly and allowed the stock market to fall freely.

Then, will the stock market enter the bear market from now on? According to the previous logic, the Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates in September this year. We will see the bright red stock market in August, August sweet scented osmanthus fragrance, the national bull market August will come back, but remember, the stock market is only between China and the United States.

Tool, so we know when to copy, when to stir up, and when to go.