TPP Urges Hongkong'S Footwear And Textile Industry To Become A Major Disaster Area

The US led trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) has made substantial breakthroughs recently. Because mainland China is not a member of TPP, many analysts believe that the mainland's trade and economy will be greatly affected, and Hongkong will not escape from the fish. Hongkong TDC and Hongkong, China and other institutions also pointed out that some Hongkong merchants who opened factories on the mainland will be greatly affected, especially footwear and textile garments, or will become "the hardest hit areas". But Hongkong itself is the freest economy in the world. In the future, as long as we actively add more regional trade organizations and make good use of the business opportunities brought by the Asian investment bank and the "one belt and one way" policy, we will gain more opportunities for development.

Pan Yongcai, chief economist of the global market of Hongkong TDC research department, said that most of Hongkong's factories are currently producing in the mainland, because the mainland is not TPP The tariffs on products will be much higher than that in member countries, so that their competitiveness will decline, thereby affecting Hongkong's exports. In particular, labor-intensive products are most affected, because those products compete mainly at low prices, such as textile garments and footwear, which will become the hardest hit areas.

Pan Yongcai pointed out that, because many of these two products are produced in Vietnam, Vietnam, as one of the TPP members, will have more competitive advantages in the future. Hongkong businessmen have known this in recent years, and many manufacturers have moved to Vietnam in recent years. Because Vietnam was already a member of TPP several years ago, Hongkong businessmen knew that TPP would be implemented sooner or later and moved earlier. After the formal implementation of canal TPP, it will become a catalyst for more Hongkong businessmen to move to Vietnam.

Wang Chunxin, senior economist at the Hongkong Economic Research Office of BOC, said that Hongkong's industry has already begun to move, although this is mainly because the cost of mainland production has been raised too fast. However, after the formal implementation of the TPP, the US market will have a crowding out effect on the mainland products, and the textile and footwear categories will be greatly affected, and less competitive will be replaced, which will accelerate the relocation of the industry. trend 。 Among them, the added value of footwear is the lowest and manufacturers are the fastest.

However, Wang Chunxin believes that the overall impact of Hongkong is very small, because Hongkong is not only the trade center of the mainland, but also the trade center of Southeast Asia. Even if manufacturers move to Vietnam, products need to be re exported to the United States via Hongkong, and the materials in the US also need to be sold to Vietnam through Hongkong. In addition, Vietnam's infrastructure is poor, shipping and air freight can not keep up, and many trade still needs to be handled through Hongkong. Canal said that in the first 8 months of 2015, the United States increased 44% of its cargo through Hongkong to Vietnam. Vietnam's exports through Hongkong to the United States are also rising, faster than global trade, and it is expected to be faster.

Pan Yongcai also pointed out that the United States imported Textile garments In 2014, 39% of the products came from the mainland (including products made by Hongkong manufacturers). Vietnam ranked second, but only 9%. Although this figure does not reflect the factors of TPP, it is believed that the threat posed by Vietnam in the short term is not large. Dong Yiyue, senior economist at the Hongkong General Chamber of Commerce, said that the population of Vietnam is only 89 million, which is not as good as that of Guangdong. Although the current labor cost is lower than that of the mainland, it has also been increasing in recent years, for example, in 2014, it rose by 6.7% in the year to 8.3% in 2013. It is understood that although many members of the Hongkong General Chamber of Commerce have set up factories in Vietnam, they are "opening more than one factory". They have not closed the mainland factories. Therefore, as far as TPP is concerned, the impact of Hongkong on Hongkong is very small. It is confident that the industry will not be marginalized.