Liu Xiaobo'S Interpretation Of The Logic Behind The Stock Market Rally
On Wednesday, Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets rebounded sharply.
Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 80.82 points, once again stabilized above 3000 points, or 2.77%.
The three index of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also rose by 3.48% to 4.47%.
In the column of March 29th, I analyzed several recent negative factors and gave the conclusion: "I still maintain the previous judgement that there is little room for downward adjustment in the stock market at the end, and eventually, many parties will re attack the 3000 point and stand on top of 3000 points".
Unexpectedly, this sentence just said one day, the market again stood on 3000 points.
Why is there such a big counterattack so fast? First, there is an emergency outside, and the two is internal conscious release.
First look at the internal good.
To tell the truth, the adjustment of the past few days was intentional by the management. At that time, there appeared 7 Lian Yang in the market, and the market showed signs of overheating again.
But the stock market and the property market are "Pro sons", beating, fighting, love or love.
If there is no setback, there will be good results.
For example, after yesterday's market closet, two news came out:
1, the state
Exchange control
Its investment platform, "Indus tree investment platform limited liability company", began buying bank shares and appeared on the latest shareholders list of Bank of communications and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.
(latest news: "phoenix tree" became the major shareholder of ICBC and Bank of China in the fourth quarter of 2015.
2, the social security fund several large scale domestic entrusted management per capita received hundreds of millions of yuan of funds, the total size of the fund has about 10 billion funds, and has arrived on the same day, in March 29th can enter the market.
But this is still not the key to the problem.
The most important thing is that in the early morning of March 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen released a pigeon speech again, which was dubbed "dove who offered a raise in interest rates".
Today, there is another good thing to note:
The Ministry of Finance said that at present, the debt ratio of our government is about 40%.
In 2016, China will continue to implement positive measures.
fiscal policy
It includes expanding the size of the deficit and raising the deficit to 3%.
Considering that China's government debt ratio and fiscal deficit rate are at a low level in the world's major economies, it is still safe and feasible to raise appropriately.
At the same time, adding a little leverage to the government will also help to support the de leveraging of real economy enterprises and achieve steady growth, structural adjustment and deleveraging.
At present, there is an increase in the stock market watching mechanism.
For example, in the recently released asset allocation monthly report, CICC suggested that the monetary allocation in the next 6-12 months should be lowered to a low allocation, raising the stock to super matching, and adjusting the commodities to the standard.
But we need to remind you that we can't eat hot tofu.
Although the market in April can be optimistic as a whole, there is still a possibility of repeated market.
One is because management does not want to see "fast bull"; the two is that the upper limit holds more; the three is that as the index goes up, the desire to reduce large shareholders will increase.
In addition, the North Korean nuclear issue may become a black swan at any time.
The fed in March was a bit of a relief.
First announced in the early morning of March 17th not to raise interest rates, brought benefits to the market.
A few days later, several senior Federal Reserve officials publicly expressed their support for raising interest rates in April.
Subsequently, the US dollar went out of a strong market and pushed global commodities and stock markets down the slide.
It is under this news stimulus.
A shares
There has been a sharp decline, and nearly 2900 points were broken.
On the morning of March 30th in Beijing, Yellen spoke at the New York economic club.
The global economy is at risk, and the US economic data are mixed. The Fed should be cautious about raising interest rates.
Due to the slowdown in China's economy and the collapse of oil prices, the uncertainty in the global economic and financial markets has increased, which has increased the risk of the US economy, so the Fed should make more interest rates.
Yellen's latest speech unifies the voice of the Fed and sends out doves again.
Affected by this, Asian stock markets have warmed up today and European stock markets have generally risen.
The rebound of A shares was mainly stimulated by the news.
The two internal advantages played a role in helping to fuel the flames.
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