Round Out Policy Announcement: Zheng Cotton Rise Was Stumbled.

Last Thursday, the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the 2017 cotton reserve sale plan, and the price of Zheng cotton fell back.

The reserve cotton rotation plan was announced ahead of schedule to change the short-term market expectation of cotton prices and pressure on cotton prices.

At present, highway pportation has gradually normalized under the coordination of various parties. Next month, pportation of Xinjiang fruits and fruits is reduced, and railway pportation is expected to speed up.

By the middle of January next year, real estate cotton and Sinop Xinjiang cotton will be available.

The early release of the reserve cotton sales plan will change the short-term supply and demand pattern of the market, and cotton prices will fall from high.

According to the US Department of agriculture report in October, the global cotton output increased by 10.4% in China except 2016/17, the consumption increased by 0.3%, and the final inventory increased by 3.9%. The final inventory consumption ratio rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.6%.

The increase in output was mainly due to a sharp decline in cotton production in the previous year, while the end to end inventory consumption ratio was at a low level in recent years, below the average of 10 years.

Domestic cotton planting area has been declining, and output has declined for 4 consecutive years.

Cotton production in 2016/17 is expected to decline 4.5% from last year to 4 million 572 thousand tons, down from the previous year.

Consumption declined significantly after 2011/12, and began to recover in the past 2 years.

On the one hand, the amount of cotton import quotas has been reduced; on the other hand, the price difference between cotton and cotton yarns has been narrowed at home and abroad, and the import of yarn has declined.

The above 2 reasons make China's cotton consumption increase moderately.

In the end of 2016/17, the domestic end stock decreased by 2 million 200 thousand tons, a decrease of 17.3%, a magnitude larger than that of the previous year; the end of the stock consumption ratio dropped by 31 points to 135.11%, a new low in the past 5 years; the supply gap was expected to be 3 million 157 thousand tons, an increase of 326 thousand tons over the previous year, a new high since 2011/12.

In the case of 60% cotton entering the national reserve can not be free circulation, the supply gap expansion, the sharp decline in inventory will undoubtedly pull up the cotton price operation center.

and

The rhythm of the wheel will change the market supply and demand pattern in the short term, and then affect the price trend.

In November 24th, the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly announced the announcement of the 2017 cotton reserve rotation. In 2017, the sale of cotton reserves will start in March 6th and the deadline will be temporarily set at the end of August.

Under the background of the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton and the price increase in China, the announcement of the announcement of cotton reserves and the protection of the market supply are obvious.

The Spring Festival will be held at the end of January next year.

Half a month before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream textile enterprises are almost in a state of holiday.

Storage of cotton reserves in March will exacerbate this situation.

Due to the sharp rise in road pportation costs, less vehicle and less railway capacity, up to now, cotton output has declined sharply compared with the same period in 2015.

At the same time, the demand for centralized replenishment of textile enterprises in the mainland is strong, and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding.

The announcement of the announcement of cotton reserves has greatly relieved the panic of cotton enterprises.

According to its description, next year, the reserve cotton will provide at least 3 million 840 thousand tons of effective supply to the market, fully covering the 2016/17 cotton supply gap, plus tariff import quotas.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.