Analysis Of The Three Stages Of The Cotton Market Since The Sino US Trade Friction

In fact, since the Sino US high-level contacts and peace talks, a rule will be found, which is Friday peace talks. The specific news will not come until the weekend or even next Monday.

There is no other explanation for its meaning.

Let's take a look at the cotton market.

Cotton textiles and garments have been divided into three stages from the last year to the present.

The first stage (July 2018 to November): after the Sino US mutual tariff increase, cotton textile and clothing were listed, especially from September, and the cotton textile industry suddenly entered the cold winter.

The second stage (December 2018 to January 2019): the summit meeting between China and the United States to determine the future direction.

The high-level talks between the two governments began frequent visits and peace talks, and the progress of peace talks continued to accelerate.

Market confidence began to recover, and the main mentality changed from pessimism to expectation and wait.

The third stage (February 2019 to March): after the Spring Festival, the Sino US relations have not yet been substantially changed, and the peace talks are continuing.

The result of uncertainty is still entangling the cotton textile industry. In the 3-4 month, the traditional peak season did not appear, and the market performance was general.

The mentality of market participants gradually became indifferent from the good expectation of peace talks.

After the Spring Festival, zhengmian futures has been in the stage of shock consolidation, and is in the range of 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and it is more stable in the middle and late 3 in the 15300 tier.

The so-called "stable" will move. In March, the main force of Zhengzhou cotton fell 15200 on the 27 day and fell to 15000.

In February, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices increased to the largest in a year. The price advantage of imported cotton was huge, and the quota expired.

As of February 28th, the domestic commercial inventory of Zhuo Chuang's information monitoring reached 5 million 975 thousand tons, of which a large number of new cotton stocks were concentrated in the hands of traders.

As long as the stocks not purchased by the textile enterprises are regarded as commercial inventories, they need to digest in the future. This is a big problem.

With the climbing of ICE price, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been shrinking, and the advantages of imported cotton have gradually lost.

In particular, with the decline of Zheng cotton futures, Xinjiang cotton gave an opportunity to digest.

At present, the focus of textile enterprises' purchase will come back to the Xinjiang cotton market for a period of time. Considering that the current base is over 550, the way of base price will return to active.

This is the normal reaction of the market. Chuang Chuang believes that Zheng cotton futures are only constantly testing the bottom and expanding the current basis.

At the same time, when prices continue to oscillate and rise, spot prices have an advantage. Negotiated prices become the main form of pactions. Cotton spot stocks are beginning to be digested.

Therefore, only cotton futures prices have a larger trend of shock interval, which is conducive to cotton inventory digestion.

After inventory has been digested to a certain extent, we can see the market opportunities in the future.

This situation is especially a test for traders, and how to grasp more opportunities to operate will become the key.

Market variables remain a matter of concern: Sino US trade talks (affecting future expectations and terminal orders), policy of collecting and selling reserves, and quota policy for imported cotton.