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PTA Is Not Falling, And The Market Is Fluctuating Again.

2019/11/13 18:32:00 0

Since futures went public,

The PTA and spot markets are very similar.

"You rise and I rise, you fall, I fall".

As a result, the PTA market has become quite sensitive.

At the recent stage, the futures of PTA futures continued to drop, falling below 5000 points, 4800 points and 4700 points.

The price of the spot market is down the same way, and the profit is shrinking rapidly. In a short period of time, from the top of the profit of "calling for wind and rain", the profit point has fallen directly, and there has been a loss.

In the final analysis, it depends on the imbalance between supply and demand!!!

1. The path of vertical industrial chain, PTA enters the capacity expansion cycle.

As we all know, in recent years, polyester factories have opened the way of vertical industrial chain, such as Hengli petrochemical, Rongsheng group, Tong Kun group, Heng Yi group, Sheng Hong group, new Feng Ming and other large polyester leading enterprises. After integration, acquisition, reorganization and expansion, they put into operation the PTA market, upgrading from downstream to upstream, and widening the industrial layout.

Although this is conducive to the enhancement of the concentration of PTA industry in China and the stability of the industry's discourse power, with the continuous expansion of capacity, PTA's strong position in the polyester industry chain is gradually changing. In the fourth quarter of 2019 to 2020, PTA will enter the capacity expansion cycle, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to be 25%, much larger than that of the downstream polyester production in the same period. The pattern of PTA oversupply is hard to avoid.

Two. Although polyester production capacity has expanded, it is far below the PTA capacity growth rate.

From the perspective of the downstream polyester market, the scale of polyester production has continued to expand this year, but this is far below the PTA capacity growth. According to statistics, in 2019 1-10, polyester production in China totaled 41 million 426 thousand tons, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. In 1-10, a total of 14 sets of polyester plants totaled 3 million 120 thousand tonnes of capacity, which were mainly produced by polyester chips, polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, three of which accounted for nearly 3/4 of the total polyester filament.

It is not difficult to find out the new production capacity of polyester filament Market from the actual production situation. still Concentrated in the hands of Tong Kun group and new Feng Ming two leading polyester enterprises, increased by 1 million 200 thousand tons and 600 thousand tons respectively.

Three, weaving Market is too "dull", seize the opportunity to start down.

This year's textile market boom has become a fact that can not be ignored. The market is really too "flat". Whether it belongs to this season, the Nei spinning series, the four faced bullet product and so on, or the products such as polyester taffeta, spring Asia spinning, which had been queued up for the first two years, were once gone back to the rush buying rush. The total order volume decreased by nearly 20%-40%.

Affected by market orders and market fluctuations, the starting rate of downstream weaving market has changed considerably since this year. Although it is not obvious that the opening rate of textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is not obvious, the frequency of switching and switching is relatively high this year. There are different measures to reduce production and stop production at high temperatures and eleven long holidays. To a certain extent, it also affects the change of upstream market demand.

Just like the past double eleven, many people have become "chopped hands".

If the polyester market continues, the profits of PTA manufacturers will also be depleted.

Although the vertical integration of PX-PTA- polyester and chemical fiber industry layout, polyester leading enterprises will not be profitable on the PTA, can be adjusted according to the actual situation of the industrial chain in a timely manner. However, after all, the polyester industry chain is a community and can complement each other to achieve long-term development.