Crazy Cotton Suddenly Cooling &Nbsp; Short Term Difficult To Rise Variables To See Receipt And Storage

In the complex and weak internal and external environment, commodities also become fragile, sometimes strong and sometimes weak. And last year was crazy. cotton Under the guidance of the temporary purchasing and storage policy this year, the yield increase has basically been determined. Recently, however, due to the 19600 yuan / ton purchase and storage price put forward by the State Reserve, the cotton which was originally in the vortex of profit has once again ignited a glimmer of hope.

Most futures analysts believe that the current price of cotton is on the one hand. store up The bottom line is limited, but the space seems to be small. The only uncertainty is whether the market will be uncertain again after entering the operation before and after the Mid Autumn Festival.

　 Cotton suddenly weakened

Under the influence of the external environment, the market systemic risk is relatively large, while domestic cotton spot price is stable, spinning enterprises are not many orders, the strategy of buying and selling raw materials is applied, new flowers are listed on the market, cotton enterprises purchase cautiously, the actual demand has not increased significantly, and the spot market is still on the sidelines.

The domestic cotton spot market has experienced two weeks of industrial chain replenishment market prices, the price has stabilized, and the volume has gradually cooled.

Judging from the futures market on Monday and Tuesday, the sharp reduction of warehouse positions amounted to a total of 90000 hands, and 28000 on Tuesday in 1205 contracts. It shows that the interest of the funds in the face of the current entangled market has declined, while the Zheng cotton disk has weakened.
 

"The trend of the last two days is very weak, which has been strong for the past few days." Guang Fa futures researcher Hebel analyzed that the price fluctuation in the big environment is all very fragile.

Jin Rui Futures Research Institute Strategy analysis Division Huang Hong Jun observed that from the current market, funds have not yet entered the cotton market. There will be a large number of funds to enter a variety of products, and from the current situation, N Y BO T cotton market does not have a large amount of capital to enter, and its positions remain at a low level. Therefore, it is estimated that there will not be a big market for cotton, although it will not lose any money, but it is unlikely to make much money.

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　 Receipt and storage of variables

From the end of June this year, Chen Baer has been watching cotton, because at that time, the output of cotton in the northern hemisphere was basically determined unless there were extreme natural disasters.

As early as in March, the State Reserve threw 19600 yuan / ton of purchase and storage price, hoping to stimulate the enthusiasm of cotton growers. At that time, however, cotton prices were still at more than 30 thousand high, and no need for policy incentives could guarantee cotton farmers' enthusiasm. However, after the release, the market was expected, but the specific operation of capacity and storage was not announced.

It never occurred to us that cotton fell all the way to twenty thousand in this year's market turmoil and weakness.

"The price of collecting and storing has unexpectedly become the bottom price of the market." Chen Baer estimates that the purchase and storage of concrete operations may go before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. Only then can we see how much support the policy can play and what kind of impact it will have on cotton trend.

According to a person who has frequent contacts with traders, the information disclosed at the physical level is all bad, but there is only a lot of expectations for the purchase and storage. The result of the real game is uncertain.

In Huang Hongjun's view, the purchase and storage is only a guarantee. Minimum floor price There is no guarantee that it will rise. In the case of a lot of excess, as long as the price is higher than the purchase price and has a certain profit, it will cause a large number of farmers or traders to sell, resulting in the price back to the storage price.