The Central Economic Work Conference Will Be Convened: Attention Should Be Paid To Economic Growth Under The New Normal.

It is worth noting that most domestic and overseas agencies expect that the GDP growth target in 2015 will be reduced to about 7% under the request of actively adapting to the new normal of economic development.

Experts said that monetary policy will remain stable next year, whether to cut interest rates or reduce costs. It is also necessary for financial reform, state-owned enterprises reform, land reform, price reform, household registration reform and "one belt and one way" strategy to be promoted next year.

As a weathervane of macroeconomic policy, the central economic work conference will summarize the economic situation this year, set the tone for next year's economic work, and deploy the main tasks for next year's economic work.

This is also the first central economic work conference held after the "new normal" idea was put forward. It is of great significance to explain and deploy future economic policies and reform ideas.

It needs to be pointed out that as the preparatory meeting of the central economic work conference, the 5 session of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee has made it clear that next year, we must adhere to the general keynote of steady progress and insist on improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, and actively adapt to economic development.

Keep the economy running in a reasonable range.

Under the request of "actively adapting to the new normal of economic development", one of the most serious concerns of the outside world is whether China's economic growth target will be lowered next year when China's economy is changing from "rapid growth to rapid growth".

At present, it is expected that China will reduce the target of GDP growth in 2015, almost becoming the consensus judgment at home and abroad.

Morgan chase, Citibank, Peng Bo, and Chinese and foreign banks such as Bank of China, UBS Securities, Shenyin and Wanguo recently released reports that the Chinese government is expected to reduce its economic growth target from around 7.5% to around 7% next year.

Wang Yiming, Deputy Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, has also publicly suggested that next year's growth target can be lowered moderately.

He said that at present, China's economic growth rate is slowing down, and it is also digesting the accumulated contradictions in the past high-speed growth period, including pressure production, deleveraging, and squeezing bubbles.

"At this stage, we should not expect too much speed, and we can appropriately lower the bottom line of growth rate, and give room for structural adjustment and reform.

"The goal of economic growth is determined according to the inherent law of economic development, and its adjustment needs to be considered comprehensively."

Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, told reporters that China's economy is generally in the period of gear shift and deceleration. From the current situation, the growth of about 7% can solve the new employment of 10 million people, ensure employment and the goal of economic growth can be appropriately lowered. This can also avoid some places slowing down the structural adjustment and promoting the pace of reform because of the "tight growth" of steady growth.

Cao Heping, Professor of economics and director of Development Economics Department of Peking University, told reporters that China should take the initiative to adjust its growth target in the case of the economic cycle itself and the uncertainty of the world economic situation.

"China's economy has shifted from high speed growth to high growth in the past. In order to better take account of social equity and environmental carrying capacity, it is reasonable to slow down the growth rate."

"This year's economic growth rate may be less than 7.5%. Under the new normal situation of demographic dividend and accelerating globalization recession, next year's economic growth will continue to maintain 7.5% of the difficulty significantly increased."

Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, told reporters that reducing the target of next year's economic growth is a big probability event. The most likely way is to set 7% directly, next year to achieve slightly higher than the target growth rate; another is to set the "7%-7.5%" interval, and next year's growth rate will be stable within the range.

It is worth noting that the bulletin of the central economic work conference after the conference does not generally refer to the specific objectives of GDP, which will be officially released in the next two sessions.

In the past 10 years, China's economic growth target has been adjusted two times, from 7% in 2005 to 8% in 2012, and then to 7.5% in 2012, and 7.5% in 2014.

Experts said the six areas should focus on promoting

The orientation of macroeconomic policy next year will also be determined at this meeting.

In fact, the 5 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC has set the tone ahead of schedule: maintaining the continuity and stability of the macro policy, continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

This will be China's implementation of a "positive and steady" fiscal and monetary policy package for fifth years in a row. It also dispelled the doubts that China's monetary policy will shift to easing as a result of the recent overall interest rate cut.

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Information Center, told reporters that China has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy for fifth consecutive years. It is in line with the current economic situation. "The current economic growth is slowing down, but the employment situation is good, and structural adjustment is also making progress. Therefore, there is no need for strong stimulus measures to the economy, and there is no need to make big adjustments in macroeconomic regulation and control policies."

In the view of many institutions, next year may also cut interest rates and reduce the accuracy.

Citibank expects that in order to maintain steady growth, there will be two interest rates cut from now to the first half of 2015, and the possibility of dropping the benchmark will also increase as capital outflows increase.

Shenyin Wanguo also pointed out that in 2015 China's monetary policy will be at a "robust" upper limit, that is, the substantial and loose state of the economy. It is expected that at least once in 2015, interest rates will be reduced and interest rates cut.

"Whether or not to cut interest rates next year or not, we need to make decisions based on the economic performance and inflation level next year. In general, the tone of stability will not change, and the possibility of monetary policy easing is not big."

Niu Li told reporters.

In addition to setting the macro policy, the central economic work conference will also deploy the main tasks of next year's economic work.

The previous Politburo meeting has made some macro arrangements, including promoting four new modernisation, implementing the regional overall development strategy, ensuring the improvement of people's livelihood, and promoting the reform of the economic system.

"The reform starts in 2014, and 2015 will be the key year for the reform to go forward in an all-round way. All aspects of the reform will go further."

Niu Li believes that in the steady growth of next year, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks will still be the focus of economic work. China will strive to achieve quality and efficiency improvement without causing sequelae.

At present, deposit insurance, real estate registration ordinance and residence permit management method are openly soliciting opinions. In the opinion of experts, next year, financial reform, household registration reform, land reform, state-owned enterprise reform, price reform, and "one belt and one road" are expected to be promoted.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS, predicts that the deposit insurance system will be officially launched next year, and that the pace of financial reform will accelerate. Under the background of increasing deflationary pressure, price reform will accelerate, which may further relax the regulation of energy and utility prices. Real estate downturn will aggravate the financial difficulties of state-owned enterprises and local governments, thus speeding up the pace of SOE reform.

In addition, it is expected that further decentralization will be made to speed up household registration reform and rural reform, including rural land pfer, so as to expand domestic demand.

The reporter noted that the meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee requested that "pfer mode and structure should be put in a more important position" next year.

Shenyin Wanguo's analysis report points out that the reform and opening up to promote structural adjustment will be a realistic train of thought. It is expected that the strategy of "going all out" (the Silk Road Economic Belt and the twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road) will become the focus of pformation.

It is worth noting that the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Political Bureau mentioned the "one belt and one road" when speeding up the nineteenth collective learning in the construction of free trade zones.

In the eyes of the outside world, "one belt and one road" is expected to become one of the highlights of the central economic work conference.